Food prices have remained stable over the last year, thus signalling an end to the inflation spike triggered in the aftermath of the Ukraine war and the Covid-19 pandemic. However, there is a caveat, as in reality consumers are still paying hefty prices, meaning that unless they have had a significant increase in revenue which compensate for this, they are still feeling the pinch.

This trend emerged from the latest instalment of the price monitoring survey which has been carried out by UHM Voice of the Workers since the start of 2022.

It transpires that the average price of the shopping basket from the three main supermarkets being monitored, has risen from €159.63 in December 2023 to €161.33 in the respective month of this year. The modest €1.65 increase pales in comparison to the respective increase of the previous two years which was in the region of €11.66.

According to this study the shopping basket which in January 2022 cost €136.35, by December 2024 rose to €161.32. This sharp increase was partly compensated by the cost-of-living allowance (COLA) which reached a €9.90 weekly wage rise in 2023 and even higher in 2024 at €12.81. However, employees who had no other increase in salary, except for COLA, are likely to have lost a significant part of their spending power as inflation has also hit other sectors like house maintenance, education, accommodation, clothing and the catering industry.

Looking ahead, the COLA for 2025 is set to go down to €4.66, which is further testament to the drop in inflation registered since the turn of this year.

Food price inflation in Malta is projected to moderate in 2025, aligning with broader trends in the national economy. The Central Bank of Malta anticipates that overall food price inflation will ease gradually, reaching approximately 3.0% by 2026. This deceleration is expected to be driven by a continued decline in processed food inflation, which is forecasted to decrease to 2.9% by 2026, while unprocessed food inflation may exhibit volatility but is projected to stabilize around 3.5% by the end of the forecast horizon.

Concurrently, the Central Bank projects that the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation will decrease from 5.6% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024, and further to 2.0% by 2026

These projections suggest that while food prices will continue to rise in 2025, the rate of increase is expected to slow, contributing to a broader decline in inflationary pressures within the Maltese economy.