The June 8 MEP elections took pollsters and both major parties by surprise due to the unexpectedly narrow margin between them, shrinking to just 8,454 votes. This is a stark contrast to Labour’s significant victory two years ago, where they won with a majority close to 40,000. Pre-election predictions had estimated a Labour lead of 24,000 to 30,000 votes. The unexpected outcome has caused a wave of excitement among Nationalist Party supporters, while Labour supporters experienced a bittersweet reaction.

In this context, claims that this election marks a shift in the political landscape and suggests the PN’s potential electability in the 2027 general election appear justified.

A surreal outcome

Statistically, the June 8 election resulted in the PL winning a relative majority, with the PN in second place and independent candidates once again failing to secure a seat. Thus, on paper, the PL emerged as the sole victor. However, the atmosphere on the ground was quite different, with PN supporters feeling jubilant for the first time in years and PL supporters feeling downcast. This unusual sentiment was further emphasized by the Labour media’s silence and the short-lived celebration at the party headquarters, which lasted just about an hour.

100,000 stayed at home… as in 2019

A closer analysis reveals that 27% of eligible voters did not vote or even collect their voting documents. This turnout mirrors the 2019 MEP elections, where over 100,000 voters abstained. This consistent voter apathy must be considered when assessing the political implications. For the PL, this comparison indicates worrying signs of declining popularity, with their majority plummeting from 42,656 to 8,454. However, no political party remains at its peak indefinitely, and the PL is likely following a typical political cycle after successive victories since the 2009 MEP elections. Notably, the PL has won all four MEP elections, a significant achievement for a party initially opposed to EU membership. Conversely, the PN has yet to secure a win in these elections.

The road to the next general election

The primary goal of these elections was the forthcoming general election, with some viewing it as a pre-tournament friendly. Therefore, any political conclusions should be approached with caution, as MEP and general elections are distinct. While a strong performance in 2024 is favourable, the PN must avoid developing a false sense of security. Similarly, the PL risks defeat if they underestimate Saturday’s result.

Compared to the 2022 general election, the only real gainers were independent candidates, whose votes increased from 9,308 to 33,102. This rise might indicate voters’ willingness to punish their preferred party by either abstaining or voting for anyone but their political rivals. It’s likely that the share of independent candidates will decrease in the next general election.

For the two main parties, it was about minimizing losses. The PN lost 13,882 votes compared to the 2022 general election, while the PL saw a more significant drop, losing 44,902 votes.

Going forward, the PL’s performance in government will be crucial. If they fail to reverse this decline, it might lead to an early election in a bid to secure a fourth consecutive victory. For the PN, it is evident they have made significant progress. Their future success depends on their electoral strategy, which showed improvement in the MEP elections. They need a strong lineup of candidates to appeal to undecided and disenchanted voters, capitalizing on the momentum from the MEP election results. Persuading the 100,000 who stayed home will be key. While the PL still benefits from incumbency, recent trends indicate that this advantage is waning, as large sections of the electorate are becoming resistant to it.